Global trends 2030 reports of all possible future worlds. Global trends 2030 office of the director of national intelligence. A growing number of states wield greater amounts of influence over larger geographical distances. The last report, which was released in 2012, was global trends 2030.
Burrows, counselor to the national intelligence council, discusses the choice of alternate worlds as the subtitle for gt 2030. Alternative worlds, which received widespread recognition and praise in the international media and among academics and think tanks. The nic is sponsoring this website to provide a forum where guest bloggers can discuss selected topics to be raised in the nics upcoming global trends 2030 gt2030. This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during the next 1520 years.
Similar to trends in the global distribution of power, global influence has been dispersing. Mathew burrows was our principal author in addition to orchestrating the entire. As with previous editions, we hope that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities. His intellectual gifts and managerial abilities were critical to the production of this report and. In this podcast, principal author mathew burrows breaks down some of the scenarios discussed in the report, and describes how demographic and environmental trends two of. Alternative worlds, produced by the national intelligence council. All such very likely developments, in part within the 2030 time horizon, will require a kind of global leviathan enforcing limitations on development and use of dangerous or disruptibe technologies worldwide with very radical implications for global governance not coped with in the relevant publication. He was the principal drafter for the nic publication global trends 2030. Both the product and the process used to produce it benefited from lessons learned in previous iterations. Global trends 2025 is the fourth installment in the national intelligence council led effort to identify key drivers and developments likely to shape world events a decade or more in the future. Global trends 2030s six potential gamechangers the vast changes resulting from the megatrends and tectonic shifts alone ensure a transformed world by 2030. Alternative worlds kindle edition by national intelligence council. Megatrends that will undo the world unless we take action at. The world of 2030 will be radically transformed from our world today, reads the opening of global trends 2030.
Only ten countries possess about half of the worlds influence. Mar 15, 20 the world of 2030 will be radically transformed from our world today, reads the opening of global trends 2030. The national intelligence councils global trends 2030 report predicts that by the year 2030, a majority of the world s population will be out of poverty. Government entity, operating as part of the office of the director of national intelligence odni. T he world of 2030 will be radically potential black swansdiscrete eventswould transformed. Mathew burrows serves as director of the atlantic councils strategic foresight initiative.
Both the product and the process used to produce it. Megatrends that will undo the world unless we take action palgravemacmillan, 2014 in august 20, mr. By jonathan moyer, tim sweijs, matthew burrows and hugo van manen for atlantic council. A condensed version of the report is also available 1.
Global trends and risks that will shape the world over the next 20 years 4 1. Global trends 2030 was not written for investors, and so the reader must extrapolate and draw inferences concerning the impact of predicted trends and game changers on equity and fixedincome markets. In this article, jonathan moyer et al highlight insights drawn from the formal bilateral influence capacity fbic index, which measures the bilateral influence of states from 1963 to the present. The national intelligence councils global trends 2030 report. Global marine technology trends 2030 by lloyds register issuu. How these six gamechangers evolve and interact with each other and with the megatrends and tectonic shifts will determine what kind of transformed world we will experience in 2030.
What the world will look like in 2030as predicted by the government to help plan for the future, the intelligence community has put together a vision of what the world will look like in the. Alternative worlds summary theme major trends ancillary trends megatrends individual empowerment reduction of poverty expanding global middle class narrowing education and gender gaps innovations in communications technologies improving health. Asia rises, the west declines by tom gjelten december 10, 2012 5. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence councils series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. Alternative worlds summary theme major trends ancillary trends megatrends individual empowerment reduction of poverty expanding global middle class narrowing education and gender gaps innovations in. Burrows, counselor, national intelligence counsel and principal author of the nics global trends 2030 report discusses alternative worlds in a series of odni videos.
This report summarizes the main findings of the fao study, world agriculture. Alternative worlds open pdf 0 b this report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during the next 1520 years. Although reading trends 2030 is helpful, risks 2035 can be read alone. It assesses the prospects, worldwide, for food and agriculture, including fisheries and forestry, over the years to 2015 and 2030. The global power index gpi featured in recent global trends reports produced by the national intelligence community measures multidimensional institutional, economic, material, and technological military capabilities nationally. Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading global trends 2030. Download it once and read it on your kindle device, pc, phones or tablets. Megatrends that will undo the world unless we take action by mathew burrows. Among the reports other major trends and concerns noted are the growing demand for food and water with climate change exacerbating the need for these resources as the worlds population is expected to approach 8. Alternative worlds kindle edition by burrows, mathew. Many people contributed to the preparation of global trends 2025, but no one contributed more than did mathew burrows. In 2012, the bureau of european policy advisers bepa commissioned rand europe to investigate further the theme of societal changes by drawing from the experience of the pilot project, by analysing key. Mar 05, 2018 global influence is concentrated in the hands of the few. This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during.
Global trends 2030 cfa institute enterprising investor. All such very likely developments, in part within the 2030 time horizon, will require a kind of global leviathan enforcing limitations on development and use of dangerous or disruptibe technologies worldwide with very radical implications for global governance not. Every four years since 1997, the national intelligence council the center. Mathew burrows counselor and director, analysis and production staff, national intelligence council global trends 2030. Alternative worlds, the fifth installment in the national intelligence councils series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. Global marine technology trends 2030, released on monday, is the culmination of a collaborative project between lloyds register, qinetiq and the university of southampton. Burrows, counselor, national intelligence counsel and principal. By the year 2030, for the first time in history, a majority of the worlds population will be out of poverty. Gross domestic product gdp at market exchange rates is the sum of all final goods and services produced. Trends and strategie s for europe vii next 5 to 10 years, a large domestic savings and investment imbalance is likely to follow. Global trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the ra. News article center for security studies eth zurich.
As pointed out in global trends 2030, a multipolar world is not inherently unstable. Global overview of ensuing 15 years the world in 2030. The office of the director of national intelligence will host a press briefing to discuss the release of global trends 2030. The term black swan has been part of the popular vernacular for a number of years, but it is often thrown around so liberally that some clarification would be helpful in order to understand why and how global trends 2030 discusses black swans as an important outgrowth of the intelligence communitys analysis. The world of 2030 will be radically transformed from our world today. His intellectual gifts and managerial abilities were critical to the production of this report and everyone involved owes him a huge debt of gratitude.
Burrows retired from a 28year career in the cia and state department, the last ten being spent at the national intelligence council nic. Dec, 2012 nonstate world driven by new technologies, nonstate actors take the lead in confronting global challenges. What fate for liberal order in a postwestern world. It also critiques it on grounds that include failing to learn from feedback on the 2005 report, over. Mat burrows, the director of the atlantic councils strategic foresight initiative in. What the world will look like in 2030as predicted by the.
In 2005, he was asked to set up and direct the nics new long range analysis unit, which is now known as the strategic futures group. Nonstate world driven by new technologies, nonstate actors take the lead in confronting global challenges. Alternative worlds, which received widespread recognition and praise in the international media and among academics and. Alternative worlds kindle edition by mathew burrows. Any reader looking for a road map on what these scenarios. The following report was released december 10, 2012 by the national intelligence council a condensed version of the report is also available 1. This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and. Jan 07, 20 nonstate world driven by new technologies, nonstate actors take the lead in confronting global challenges. Office of the director of national intelligence 1,907 views 11.
Global marine technology trends 2030 by lloyds register. Alternative worlds is a draft report being prepared by the us national intelligence council to be released after the presidential election, in december 2012. Alternative worlds is the fifth installment in the national intelligence. Although the 2016 version hasnt been made public yet, the principle author of global trends 2030 wrote a very detailed update to his previous work called global risks 2035. Global trends 2030 author mathew burrows describes. A game without a referee the relative decline of the west, the process of globalisation, and the emergence of new powers is creating a world with several interconnected poles. In this podcast, principal author mathew burrows breaks down some of the scenarios discussed in the report, and describes how demographic and environmental trends. Wood the ultimate cause of our failure was a simple one. Slaughter1 abstract the article acknowledges some of the strengths of the nic report such as its use of scenarios. About this site the national intelligence council nic is a u. Global trends 2030 identifies a number of other factors pertinent to the future probability of war, including power transitions, declining us military superiority, resource scarcity, new coercive technologies such as cyberweapons, precisionstrike capability, and bioweapons, and unresolved regional conflicts. T he world of 2030 will be radically potential black swansdiscrete eventswould transformed from our world today. The report also notes that the middle east and south asia could face increased instability as 2030 approaches.